中国稻米

中国稻米 ›› 2023, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 92-97.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8082.2023.01.015

• 专论与研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

四川盆地东南部再生稻开花期受低温冷害的风险预测

徐富贤1(), 袁驰2, 王学春3, 韩冬4, 廖爽5, 张志勇6, 陈琨7, 曾世清8, 孔晓谦8, 曾正明1, 张林1, 杨波1, 蒋鹏1, 周兴兵1,*()   

  1. 1四川省农业科学院 水稻高粱研究所 / 农业农村部西南水稻生物学与遗传育种重点实验室 / 作物生理生态及栽培四川省重点实验室，四川 德阳 618000
    2内江市农业科学院，四川 内江 641000
    3西南科技大学，四川 绵阳 621010
    4宜宾市农业科学院，四川 宜宾 644000
    5绵阳市农业科学研究院，四川 绵阳 621023
    6四川省农业科学院 生物技术核技术研究所，成都 610066
    7四川省农业科学院 土壤肥料研究所，成都 610066
    8四川省富顺县农业局，四川 富顺 643200
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-25 出版日期:2023-01-20 发布日期:2023-01-17
  • 通讯作者: 周兴兵
  • 作者简介:xu6501@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家水稻产业技术体系(CARS-01-26);四川省育种攻关(2021YFYZ0005)

Risk Prediction of the Damage of Low Temperature Injury Flowering Period of Ratooning Rice in Southeastern of Sichuan Basin

XU Fuxian1(), YUAN Chi2, WANG Xuechun3, HAN Dong4, LIAO Shuang5, ZHANG Zhiyong6, CHEN Kun7, ZENG Shiqing8, KONG Xiaoqian8, ZENG Zhengming1, ZHANG Lin1, YANG Bo1, JIANG Peng1, ZHOU Xingbing1,*()   

  1. 1Rice and Sorghum Research Institute, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Southwest Rice Biology and Genetic Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Crop Ecophysiology and Cultivation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Deyang, Sichuan 618000, China
    2Neijiang City Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Neijiang, Sichuan 641000, China
    3Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, Sichuan 621010, China
    4Yibin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Yibin, Sichuan 644000, China
    5Mianyang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Mianyang, Sichuan 621023, China
    6Institute of Biological and Nuclear Technology, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China
    7Soil and Fertilizer Research Institute, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China
    8Fushun County Bureau of Agricultural, Fushun, Sichuan 643200, China
  • Received:2022-10-25 Online:2023-01-20 Published:2023-01-17
  • Contact: ZHOU Xingbing

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摘要：

为准确预测不同区域再生稻开花期受自然低温冷害的风险程度，并为开花期耐低温冷害品种的合理布局与制定相应的避（缓）高产稳产技术提供科学依据，于2018年和2019年，以近几年四川省推广的22个杂交中稻品种为材料，分别在四川盆地东南部不同生态点开展试验，研究了基于经度、纬度和海拔高度的再生稻开花期受自然低温冷害风险的预测方法。结果表明，再生稻齐穗后第5日日序与经度呈显著负相关，与海拔呈极显著正相关；建立了基于经度和海拔高度预测再生稻齐穗后第5日日序的回归模型，F检验值为22.88**~65.11**,决定系数高达0.9196~0.9702。该模型经多个品种连续两年在6个生态点验证，实测值与预测值1∶1回归模型的决定系数高达0.8391~0.8638，实测值与预测值之间的均方根差（RMSE）值为0.93%~1.21%，预测值与实测值之间具有较好的一致性。将本研究建立的再生稻齐穗期与地理位置关系模型与作者等先期建立的基于地理位置（纬度、海拔）预测≤22℃最早发生期预测模型相结合，探明了不同地理位置再生稻开花期受低温冷害的机率。利用地理位置信息可准确预测再生稻开花期受低温冷害的风险程度，具有较强的生产适用性。

关键词: 水稻, 再生稻, 开花期, 低温冷害, 风险预测, 四川盆地

Abstract:

Accurately predict the risk degree of the injury of low temperature in flowering stage on ratooning rice in different regions is beneficial to properly distributing low-temperature resistant varieties in the flowering stage according to local conditions and establishing high and stable yield technique to avoid or relieve low temperature. In 2018 and 2019, 22 new mid-season hybrid rice varieties introduced in recent years in Sichuan Province were used as materials and a unified test scheme at different ecological sites in southeastern Sichuan Basin were adopted to develop a method for predicting the risk of injury by low temperature in the flowering stage of ratooning rice based on longitude, latitude and altitude. The result showed that, the sequence of the 5th day after full heading of rationing rice was negatively correlated with longitude while positively correlated with altitude. A regression model based on longitude and altitude was established to predict the sequence of rice on the 5th day after full heading of rationing rice, in which the F value was 22.88**~65.11**, and the coefficient of determination was 0.9196~0.9702. The model was validated on several varieties at 6 ecological sites for two consecutive years. The determination coefficient of 1:1 regression model between measured value and predicted value was 0.8391~0.8638, and the RMSE between the measured value and the predicted value was 0.93%~1.21%. There was a good performance in consistency between the predicted value and the measured value. Combining the relationship model between the full head stage and geographical location of ratoon rice established in this study and the earlier prediction model based on geographic location （latitude, altitude） established by the authors to predict the earliest occurrence period of ≤22 ℃, and clarified the rate of injury by low temperature in flowering stage of ratooning rice in different geographical locations. Information of geographical location is useful to achieve accurate prediction of the risk of low temperature injury in flowering stage of ratooning rice, which has high applicability in production.

Key words: rice, ratoon rice, flowering stage, low temperature injury, risk prediction, Sichuan basin

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