关键词: 南方水稻黑条矮缩病, 生态因子, 逐步回归, 通径分析, 预测模型

Abstract: The southern rice black streaked dwarf disease virus is an important viral disease that newly happen in recent years in rice area of Southern China. In order to clarify the relationship between the ecological factors and the disease incidence and improve the ability to predict and avoid serious losses，the author did a survey on their relationship based on the occurrence data from 2007 to 2015 by stepwise regression and path analysis. The results showed that the temperature and rain coefficient of late October last year and the late southern rice black streaked dwarf disease incidence of last year have a critical impact on the disease incidence. The author established the early southern rice black streaked dwarf virus disease incidence regression model with the ecological factors, and the model is ■ = -2.7590 + 0.1895 X 1 + 0.1345 X 2 + 1.0495 X 3 + 0.0044 X 4 . The fitting effect of historical data is better by using the regression equation. In 2015, the difference between the forecast values and actual values is small and the predictive ability is strong，so the model is suitable for local as well as West Guangdong region.

Key words: southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus, ecological factors, stepwise regression, path analysis, prediction model